In the Q&A below, HwangDBS Vickers Research explains the significance and expectations of the Year of the Dragon, which will reign from Jan 23, 2012 through Feb 9, 2013.
Q: Can you briefly explain the Chinese animal signs and basics of Chinese geomancy?
A: According to the Chinese almanac, the lunar calendar runs on a 60-year cycle, rotating among 12 animal signs of the zodiac and five elements that represent the basic components of everything in the universe — fire, earth, metal, water and wood, in this order — with their inter-relationships governed by the cycle of birth and destruction. This year, we are marking the Year of the Water Dragon, which takes over from the Metal Rabbit.
How do you know about celestial predictions when you are supposed to be a financial analyst? Who are your sources?
We do not pretend to know everything, certainly not the art of fortune telling. We trawl through cyberspace and borrow the crystal balls of experts who use a combination of astrology, horoscope and metaphysics principles. Based on consensus opinion, we then link their interpretations to our stock market knowledge, with a dose of logic of course.
Are the astrologers’ forecasts reliable?
Call them what you want — geomancers, soothsayers, astrologers, fortune tellers, feng shui practitioners — these self-styled masters earn a living by making predictions. Just like us, who advise clients by recommending what stocks to buy or sell (and hope we will be rewarded with commissions in return). Since forecasting is more art than science, based on different methods and subjective interpretations, there is no guarantee of accuracy. So, please do not hold us liable for their forward-looking opinions.
But were the predictions accurate last year?
To be honest, it was mixed. We wrote that the stock market rally would extend into 2011, but our local bourse could not sustain its momentum despite registering new highs. Yet, the advice to be more vigilant in the later stages due to possible cooling effects arising from the water element with the arrival of the Year of the Dragon seemed to offer a sense of truth.
In hindsight, investors who emulated the traits of the Rabbit would have benefited. Calls to use the long bunny ears to filter out market noises, avoid overconfidence, and show resilience, were timely. A word of caution — past track record is not a guarantee or reflection of future performance.
Why should we then read this report?
This report is for fun, if you will. The content is merely for amusement to take your mind off the shaky global economic outlook. It is not meant to be a substitute for our fundamental approach. So, be open-minded and stay positive. You can choose to believe or ignore these general forecasts, which are made without considering specific elements. Whatever the omens, remember, you are the master of your own destiny. So, let’s use our common sense to seek the truth.
Which elements will dominate in the Year of the Dragon?
We will see water sitting on top of earth. This represents a destructive cycle as earth is the destroyer of water according to the cycle of birth and destruction. Due to this conflicting relationship, there could be upheavals arising from a sense of imbalance. The combination of the water and earth elements may also result in murky waters, which could obscure the outlook. In addition, the Dragon is the only animal in the Chinese zodiac that is mythical, which implies events may unfold in an illusory manner. Yet, the later part of the year promises stability and recovery.
Will the world end on Dec 21?
As an investor, you should worry more about whether you will make money this year. Contrary to popular belief, the Mayan doomsday prophecy did not predict that the world would end on Dec 21, 2012. It merely said the date marks the end of a great cycle and the beginning of another in their calendar. It is also a leap year, which signifies that we will be able to jump over obstacles ahead. And just to be clear, we plan to be around this time next year to write on the Year of the Snake.
What happened in previous Dragon years?
An analysis of historical stock market performance was inconclusive. In Malaysia, the benchmark KLCI saw an obvious downtrend in 2000, but chalked up gains in 1988. If we go back to the last Year of the Water Dragon in 1952, the DJIA on Wall Street pulled back first (-7%) before rebounding subsequently to close the year up a minute 4%.
When will the bulls return? What does the Year of the Dragon hold for our stock market?
We wish we knew the exact timing. According to the soothsayers, the bulls may not make their presence felt this lunar year. This is because of the missing fire element, which represents the driving force behind the stock market. You may argue that the mythical creature could breathe out fire, but let’s not forget the dominance of the water element in the Year of the Dragon that can calm its fire. Also, because the spirit of the Dragon tends to make everything seem larger than life, the financial markets could see more volatility this year.
To prosper, be adaptable like the Dragon, which can live in water, on land and in the air. Being imaginative and self-driven are essential investment traits, too, as the divine beast is always able to see and chart new paths.
Which sectors will see good fortune?
Industries associated with the wood and earth elements. This is because according to the cycle of birth and destruction, wood conquers earth while earth conquers water (and earth and water are the two dominant elements in the Year of the Dragon). They include consumer products, food and beverage and media (wood element), and property, construction, petroleum related and mining (earth element). Meanwhile, industries that fall under the fire element (airlines, for example) and water element (shipping) are expected to face turbulent times.
Where should investors put their money? And why?
In defensive stocks, of course. For prudence’s sake, that’s why. If the worst is yet to come, then it only makes sense to adopt a capital preservation investment strategy. To seek shelter in Malaysia, consider the following eight names. They are either in auspicious sectors or offer attractive dividend returns: Berjaya Sports Toto Bhd (“buy”, target price: RM4.70), Parkson Holdings Bhd (“buy”, TP: RM6.55), KLCC Property Holdings Bhd (“buy” TP: RM3.70), Axis REIT (“buy”, TP: RM2.75), Gamuda Bhd (“buy”, TP: RM4.80), Petronas Gas Bhd (“buy”, TP: RM16.90), Bumi Armada Bhd (“buy” TP” RM5) and Malayan Banking Bhd (“buy” TP: RM10.60).
Q: Can you briefly explain the Chinese animal signs and basics of Chinese geomancy?
A: According to the Chinese almanac, the lunar calendar runs on a 60-year cycle, rotating among 12 animal signs of the zodiac and five elements that represent the basic components of everything in the universe — fire, earth, metal, water and wood, in this order — with their inter-relationships governed by the cycle of birth and destruction. This year, we are marking the Year of the Water Dragon, which takes over from the Metal Rabbit.
How do you know about celestial predictions when you are supposed to be a financial analyst? Who are your sources?
We do not pretend to know everything, certainly not the art of fortune telling. We trawl through cyberspace and borrow the crystal balls of experts who use a combination of astrology, horoscope and metaphysics principles. Based on consensus opinion, we then link their interpretations to our stock market knowledge, with a dose of logic of course.
Are the astrologers’ forecasts reliable?
Call them what you want — geomancers, soothsayers, astrologers, fortune tellers, feng shui practitioners — these self-styled masters earn a living by making predictions. Just like us, who advise clients by recommending what stocks to buy or sell (and hope we will be rewarded with commissions in return). Since forecasting is more art than science, based on different methods and subjective interpretations, there is no guarantee of accuracy. So, please do not hold us liable for their forward-looking opinions.
But were the predictions accurate last year?
To be honest, it was mixed. We wrote that the stock market rally would extend into 2011, but our local bourse could not sustain its momentum despite registering new highs. Yet, the advice to be more vigilant in the later stages due to possible cooling effects arising from the water element with the arrival of the Year of the Dragon seemed to offer a sense of truth.
In hindsight, investors who emulated the traits of the Rabbit would have benefited. Calls to use the long bunny ears to filter out market noises, avoid overconfidence, and show resilience, were timely. A word of caution — past track record is not a guarantee or reflection of future performance.
Why should we then read this report?
This report is for fun, if you will. The content is merely for amusement to take your mind off the shaky global economic outlook. It is not meant to be a substitute for our fundamental approach. So, be open-minded and stay positive. You can choose to believe or ignore these general forecasts, which are made without considering specific elements. Whatever the omens, remember, you are the master of your own destiny. So, let’s use our common sense to seek the truth.
Which elements will dominate in the Year of the Dragon?
We will see water sitting on top of earth. This represents a destructive cycle as earth is the destroyer of water according to the cycle of birth and destruction. Due to this conflicting relationship, there could be upheavals arising from a sense of imbalance. The combination of the water and earth elements may also result in murky waters, which could obscure the outlook. In addition, the Dragon is the only animal in the Chinese zodiac that is mythical, which implies events may unfold in an illusory manner. Yet, the later part of the year promises stability and recovery.
Will the world end on Dec 21?
As an investor, you should worry more about whether you will make money this year. Contrary to popular belief, the Mayan doomsday prophecy did not predict that the world would end on Dec 21, 2012. It merely said the date marks the end of a great cycle and the beginning of another in their calendar. It is also a leap year, which signifies that we will be able to jump over obstacles ahead. And just to be clear, we plan to be around this time next year to write on the Year of the Snake.
What happened in previous Dragon years?
An analysis of historical stock market performance was inconclusive. In Malaysia, the benchmark KLCI saw an obvious downtrend in 2000, but chalked up gains in 1988. If we go back to the last Year of the Water Dragon in 1952, the DJIA on Wall Street pulled back first (-7%) before rebounding subsequently to close the year up a minute 4%.
When will the bulls return? What does the Year of the Dragon hold for our stock market?
We wish we knew the exact timing. According to the soothsayers, the bulls may not make their presence felt this lunar year. This is because of the missing fire element, which represents the driving force behind the stock market. You may argue that the mythical creature could breathe out fire, but let’s not forget the dominance of the water element in the Year of the Dragon that can calm its fire. Also, because the spirit of the Dragon tends to make everything seem larger than life, the financial markets could see more volatility this year.
To prosper, be adaptable like the Dragon, which can live in water, on land and in the air. Being imaginative and self-driven are essential investment traits, too, as the divine beast is always able to see and chart new paths.
Which sectors will see good fortune?
Industries associated with the wood and earth elements. This is because according to the cycle of birth and destruction, wood conquers earth while earth conquers water (and earth and water are the two dominant elements in the Year of the Dragon). They include consumer products, food and beverage and media (wood element), and property, construction, petroleum related and mining (earth element). Meanwhile, industries that fall under the fire element (airlines, for example) and water element (shipping) are expected to face turbulent times.
Where should investors put their money? And why?
In defensive stocks, of course. For prudence’s sake, that’s why. If the worst is yet to come, then it only makes sense to adopt a capital preservation investment strategy. To seek shelter in Malaysia, consider the following eight names. They are either in auspicious sectors or offer attractive dividend returns: Berjaya Sports Toto Bhd (“buy”, target price: RM4.70), Parkson Holdings Bhd (“buy”, TP: RM6.55), KLCC Property Holdings Bhd (“buy” TP: RM3.70), Axis REIT (“buy”, TP: RM2.75), Gamuda Bhd (“buy”, TP: RM4.80), Petronas Gas Bhd (“buy”, TP: RM16.90), Bumi Armada Bhd (“buy” TP” RM5) and Malayan Banking Bhd (“buy” TP: RM10.60).
