Tuesday, 13 December 2011

O&G: Crude OSV letdown sours 3Q performance

Oil and gas — equipment and specialist valve services

Maintain overweight on sector: The oil and gas (O&G) sector experienced its first earnings setback for the year as Alam Maritim Resources Bhd and Perdana Petroleum Bhd missed expectations. However, the remaining companies in our portfolio are set to post record profit in CY11 to CY13. We are pumped about Petroliam Nasional Bhd’s (Petronas) RM300 billion capital expenditure and downstream push.

The sector remains an “overweight”. Also intact are all our stock recommendations, earnings forecasts and target prices. Our top picks are Petronas Dagangan Bhd (PetDag) for the big caps and Perisai Petrolem Teknologi for the small caps.

Petronas targets to invest RM300 billion over the next five years.

The sector remains an “overweight”. Also intact are all our stock recommendations, earnings forecasts and target prices. Our top picks are Petronas Dagangan Bhd (PetDag) for the big caps and Perisai Petrolem Teknologi for the small caps.

The O&G sector had a strong first half with two quarters of disappointment-free performance since 4Q08 when we started our quarterly results review. However, it hit a bump in 3Q.

Of all the nine companies under our O&G coverage, seven or 78% met our expectations. Offshore support vessel (OSV) providers Alam and Perdana undershot expectations, providing the first letdown for the sector this year.
We expect all-time high net profit in CY11 to CY13 for Bumi Armada Bhd, Dialog Group Bhd, Perisai, PetDag and Wah Seong Engineering Sdn Bhd, a leading fabricator and a top driller.

This collective record performance supports our three-year earnings per share compound annual growth rate of 25% for our O&G portfolio in Malaysia, superior to Thailand’s 16.1% and Singapore’s 0.7%.

Petronas aims to invest RM300 billion over the next five years. It is undertaking major downstream initiatives, which include the US$20 billion (RM63 billion) refinery and petrochemical integrated development (Rapid) project in Johor and the expansion of PetDag’s retail and lubricant businesses. — CIMB Research, Dec 12



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