Monday 31 October 2011

RHBCap to test resistance level

SENTIMENT on Bursa Malaysia continued to strengthen last week, spurred by the strong technical rebounds on the New York and Asian stock markets, particularly Hong Kong and Tokyo.

The FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI) continued to stay above the key 1,450-point level for the entire week, trading between a low of 1,448.12 on Tuesday and a high of 1,488.20 on Friday, a range of 40.08 points. The benchmark index closed at 1,481.82, posting a week-on-week gain of 42.99 points, or 2.99 per cent.

Among other indices, the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Small Cap Index gained 318.19 points, or 2.85 per cent, to 11,501.27 and the FTSE Bursa Malaysia ACE Market Index advanced 112.46 points, or 2.84 per cent, to 4,072.95.

On the foreign front, New York staged yet another follow-through rebound. The Dow Jones Industrial Average soared 3.58 per cent over the week to end at 12,231.11 on Friday.

The S&P 500 index, a broader indicator of the market, gained 3.78 per cent, to 1,285.08 and the tech-stock heavy Nasdaq Composite Index advanced 3.78 per cent to 2,737.15.

In Hong Kong, the stock market rebounded across the board and the Hang Seng Index advanced 11.06 per cent to 20,019.24.

Tokyo's benchmark index, the Nikkei 225, raced through the critical resistance of 9,000 points closing at 9,050.47 on Friday, up 4.28 per cent for the week.

On Bursa Malaysia, RHB Capital Bhd closed at RM7.67, a week-on-week gain of 54 sen, or 7.57 per cent.

The following are the readings of some of its technical indicators:

Moving Averages: RHBCap's daily price trend continued to stay above its 10-, 20- and 30-day moving averages. It continued to stay below its 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages.

Momentum Index: Its short-term momentum index stayed above the support of its neutral reference line last week.

On Balance Volume (OBV): Its short-term OBV stayed above the support of its 10-day moving averages.

Relative Strength Index (RSI): Its 14-day RSI had since stayed above the 50 level. Its technical reading stood at the 57.84 per cent level at the market close on Friday.

Outlook
Strong buying support for key heavyweight index-linked stocks, particularly higher-priced counters, components sent the FBM KLCI above its crucial support of level of 1,450 last week. Of the benchmark index's 30 component stocks, 26 ended higher.

Once again, heavyweight blue chips continued to dominate trading activities, reflecting the continued buying support by institutional investors.

Select heavyweight blue-chip counters were well supported by institutional buying. RHBCap was one of these counters.

Chartwise, RHBCap's monthly price trend staged a successful re-test of the support of its neckline. Its fast monthly MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator) continued to stay below its monthly slow MACD.

Its weekly price trend staged a breach below its intermediate-term uptrend support (see RHBCap's weekly price chart B1:B2). Last week, its weekly price trend continued to stay below its intermediate-term downtrend (B3:B4).

RHBCap's daily price trend staged a technical breakout of its intermediate-term downtrend (see RHBCap's daily price trend C1:C2) last week and continued to stay above it at the market close on Friday.

Its daily fast MACD stayed above its daily slow MACD at the end of the week. However, its weekly and monthly fast MACDs continued to stay below their respective slow MACDs.

Its 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stood at the 57.84 per cent level. Its 14-week and 14-month RSI were at the 44.55 and 54.85 per cent levels respectively.

Given the decisive technical breakout of its intermediate-term downtrend (C1:C2) last Thursday, it is envisaged that RHBCap's daily price trend is likely to stage a follow-through rebound this week. It is likely to rechallenge its immediate overhead resistance at the RM8.00-RM8.40 levels.

The subject expressed above is based purely on technical analysis and opinions of the writer. It is not a solicitation to buy or sell.

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