Monday, 5 December 2011

One-year reprieve from IAS 41 for planters

KUALA LUMPUR: Public-listed plantation companies have the option of deferring the adoption of International Accounting Standard (IAS) 41 Agriculture for another year, according to the Malaysian Accounting Standard Board (MASB).

The accounting body said this last month when it announced a new MASB approved accounting framework, the Malaysian Financial Reporting Standards (MFRS Framework).

The issuance was made in conjunction with MASB’s plan to converge with International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRSs) in 2012.

The MASB said the MFRS Framework is to be applied by all other than private entities starting Jan 1, with the exception of entities that are within the scope of MFRS 141 Agriculture and IC Interpretation 15 Agreements for Construction of Real Estate (IC 15). MFRS 141 is the equivalent of IAS 41.

This is to accommodate potential changes as the International Accounting Standards Board is planning to issue a new standard that would subsume IC 15 and is like to amend IAS 41.

“If you want to adopt it, you can. But if you choose not to, that gives you a respite of one year. By the time the revised standard is out, you can adopt the new standard, but if not, you won’t be in compliance with IFRS even though you are in compliance with Malaysian standards,” Lee Kok Wai, partner at Crowe Horwath, explained.

“Companies may choose to go ahead or defer one year. MASB gave its views at the National Standard Setters meeting in New York in March with the hope that the standard would be amended. MASB achieved its objective by putting a review of this standard,” said James Chan, a partner at Crowe Horwath.

Lee: By the time the revised standard is out, you can adopt the new standard.


Chan: MASB achieved its objective by putting a review of this standard.


Loh: You have IAS 2 on inventories which cover fruit but exclude the producers - the trees.


Loh Kam Hian, audit partner at KPMG, explained that IAS 41 came about from the need to have a standard for each line of asset and liability reported in the statement of financial position.

“Where do biological assets come in? You have IAS 2 on inventories which cover fruit but exclude the producers — the trees. You will find IAS 16 for fixed assets but again this excludes forest assets.”

“So there’s a gap, there was no standard governing the bearer, the biological assets. Hence IAS 41 to bridge the gap,” said Loh.

Malaysian plantation companies, which have been using the historical cost method in valuing their biological assets, had previously voiced concern about the implementation of IAS 41. IAS 41 requires companies involved in agriculture activities, for example livestock farming, oil palm planting and even timber harvesting, to fair value their biological assets at each balance sheet date.

While the cost method is simple, fair valuation requires judgement in the assumptions applied in the financial model, for example the discount rate, the growth rate, the life expectancy of the assets, among others, to arrive at the assets’ fair value.

To account for the fair value of oil palm trees for example, one would need to determine their market value.

“Is there an active market available, if not, you try to find approximates from similar recent market transactions. When you do not have approximates, you need judgement when you prepare the present value of expected cash flow of the asset,” Loh added.

This requires expertise and additional costs for the preparers of financial statements as independent external valuers are often engaged for this exercise.

Sime Darby Bhd, which owns more than 500,000ha of oil palm estates in Malaysia, Indonesia and Africa, has commenced an assessment of the implication of IAS 41 on financial statements. The valuation methodology was determined and enhanced in consultation with a professional firm of valuers.

As assumptions change with market conditions, the bottom lines of companies will also be affected.

“Results will be quite volatile because values go up an down due to the various variables. The cost method as currently used is much more predictable in that way,” Loh said.

Aside from the element of subjectivity and risk of volatility in companies’ bottom lines, Chan said the judgement calls made by the preparer may also lead to open disagreements with the auditor.

“Auditors are required to challenge and question the preparer and conduct a stress test. If the basis used is not reasonable then there is bound to be disagreement which may lead to qualified accounts,” he explained.

From a practical standpoint, TH Plantations Bhd CFO Mohamed Azman Shah Ishak said for a company with vast oil palm estates in different locations, with differing age profiles and soil conditions, arriving at the fair value may require pages of assumptions, which may only confuse users.

A Sime Darby spokesperson said that given its large planted area, the biggest challenge in implementing IAS 41 is gathering and managing source data relevant for the purpose of valuation of biological assets and the preparation of discounted cash flows to the lowest cash generating unit which is on a field-by-field basis. Source data refers to past historical financial and operational records, projected selling prices, field maps, soil classification, projected financial and operational performance, rainfall statistics, the spokesperson added.

“Furthermore in the event that an external professional valuer is required to determine the fair value of the biological assets periodically, this is likely to be an additional recurring cost,” she said.

Azman questioned whether knowledge of the market value of the biological assets of a company would serve the needs of a long-term investor.

“Because you’re not going to realise it, the company is a going concern which will continue to operate. If you have an intention to sell it, then I want to know the value but otherwise, I just want to know the value it can give me as a going concern not if it’s realised,” he said.

Financial practitioners added that dividends paid by companies are not based on their intrinsic value but on value realised year by year. When the bottom lines reflected in financial statements under fair valuation predominantly comprise unrealised profit, it should be noted that they may not necessarily have the cash flow to pay dividends.

Despite the concerns, Sime Darby said IAS 41 will introduce a new concept of recognising profit upfront in the plantation industry.

“Plantation companies are likely to show a windfall profit in the initial year of planting when biological assets are fair valued. However, the profit would be on a decreasing trend in subsequent years if operations remain static,” the Sime Darby spokesperson said.

Loh said that through education and adequate disclosures in the financial statements, stakeholders would be able to benefit from IAS 41.

“In a world where people are informed, the information will unlock a lot of value. In the cost method, values are generally lower. There’s talk about plantation companies being undervalued so showing fair value, especially in this market when values are high, may unlock some of these values. So, it’s not all bad for the plantation companies. Shareholders may benefit from it,” he added.


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, December 5, 2011.



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InsiderAsia’s model portfolio - 458

Global stocks rallied last week on a wave of optimism, driven primarily by the coordinated action taken by major central banks to tackle the emerging credit crunch and better-than-expected economic data from the US.

It remains to be seen, however, if the uptrend will last. By the end of the week, investors were pulling back a little pending November’s employment data from the US Labour Department, which was released after the close of Asian market trading hours.

The mid-week move by the US Federal Reserve, together with the central banks of Japan, England, Switzerland, Canada and the European Central Bank (ECB), to lower the interest cost on emergency US dollar loans tempered fears of a wider fallout from the emerging credit crunch, especially among European banks. With the sovereign debt crisis continuing to drag on, traditional sources of US dollar funding are beginning to dry up as investors shifted to safer assets.

The provision of liquidity, however, is not a solution to the crisis, which has, until today, remained elusive. European leaders remain at odds on the next step forward. Of late, Germany and France have been pushing for deeper fiscal integration among members of the single currency, including central oversight of national budgets, tougher enforcement and harsh automatic sanctions if rules are breached.

Obtaining approval for such a move from all member countries is unlikely to be an easy task. If successful though, the ECB has hinted that it could expand its bond-buying role, which is increasingly being advocated as the solution to bring stability back to the markets. So far, its limited buying programme has not stopped yields for troubled countries such as Italy and Spain from rising to record levels. Rising investor nervousness was evident when even a German bond auction received tepid response.


Until a comprehensive solution is found, financial markets will continue to be driven by headline news out of Europe.

Positively, the US economy appears to have picked up some momentum after a disappointing 1H11. 3Q11 GDP growth was stronger at 2%, compared with 0.4% and 1.3% in 1Q11 and 2Q11 respectively. Retail sales got off to a robust start for the year-end holiday shopping season while the job market is also showing some signs of improvement. Even the moribund housing market is showing signs of bottoming out, though there are still downside risks to prices as a result of foreclosures. With Europe expected to go into mild recession next year, growth in the US will be vital to keep the global economy afloat.

Underpinning global economic concerns, China lowered the reserve requirement for banks last week, for the first time since the financial crisis. Prior to this, the country has been raising both the reserve requirement and interest rate to tamp rising inflation. The most recent November manufacturing data showed activities contracting in the world’s second-largest economy.

Portfolio review
Note that this review is for a two-week period. Stocks in our model portfolio outperformed the benchmark index over the past two-week period. Total market value for our basket of 17 stocks was up by 2.79% to RM388,085, compared with the FBM KLCI’s 2.38% gain.

Ten stocks in our portfolio closed with gains while six ended lower and one other traded unchanged. Some of the notable gainers include DiGi (+6.7%), Masteel (+6.6%), MyEG Services (+6.4%), CIMB (+4.8%) and Maybank (+4.7%). At the other end, Pantech (-2.1%) and Al-Aqar KPJ REIT (-3.4%) were among the notable losers.

We added dividends from Pantech (one sen per share) and Maybank (32 sen per share) to our cash holdings. Also, note that DiGi has completed its one-to-10 share split exercise. As such, we now own 20,000 shares in the mobile operator. Our average cost is effectively zero after adjusting for previous dividend payments.

Including our cash holdings, for which no interest income is imputed, our total portfolio value was up by a lesser 1.6% to RM670,338. Last week’s gains boosted our model portfolio’s cumulative returns since inception to 319% on our initial capital of just RM160,000. We continue to outperform the FBM KLCI, which was up by about 130.2% over the same period, by some distance.

Our cash holdings remain substantial, accounting for 42% of our total portfolio value. The relatively high percentage is primarily for prudence’s sake. Despite the recent rebound, we remain cautious on the market outlook.

Our total profits are very substantial at RM510,338, of which RM399,793 has already been realised from previous shares’ sales.

We kept our portfolio unchanged.


Note: This report is brought to you by Asia Analytica Sdn Bhd, a licensed investment adviser. Please exercise your own judgment or seek professional advice for your specific investment needs. We are not responsible for your investment decisions. Our shareholders, directors and employees may have positions in any of the stocks mentioned.


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, December 5, 2011.





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Affin preserving asset quality amid tougher conditions

Affin Holdings Bhd (Dec 2, RM2.99)
Maintain underperform at RM2.94 with fair value of RM2.05: Management guided for loan growth of 13% to 14% this year (2010: 17.1% year-on-year), slightly below the earlier guided 13% to 15% but in line with annualised loan growth of 12.9% for 9MFY11. For 2012, the focus is on preserving asset quality and capital, in light of the challenging macro environment ahead. As such, Affin does not plan to grow its loan book aggressively, and instead guided for loan growth to slow down further to 9% to 10%. We assume 2011 and 2012 loan growth of 11% and 9% respectively, which we leave unchanged for now.

For 3QFY11, net interest margin (NIM) fell 10 basis points (bps) quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q), which Affin said was due to competition on both lending and, especially, deposit gathering. Management thinks 3Q NIM could have bottomed out and hopes to sustain current levels, citing measures such as controlled loan growth and pricing strategies. However, while Affin’s balance sheet appears liquid (loan deposit ratio [LDR] of 75.3%), there may not be much room here to help NIMs as the liquidity resides at the Islamic bank (LDR of 55% to 60%) while the commercial bank’s LDR is at a higher 80% to 85%. We have assumed NIM contraction of 17bps in 2011 and another 3bps decline in 2012.

For 3QFY11 net profit was boosted by recoveries of RM123 million, which in turn was helped by recoveries from some large corporate accounts. Thanks to the rise in collateral values, some of the collateral was more than sufficient to cover the outstanding principal. Nevertheless, management does not expect such recoveries to be sustainable ahead. Thus, the emphasis on preserving asset quality so as to keep credit cost low.


Affin’s interim gross dividend per share (DPS) of 12 sen (ex date is Dec 6) beat our initial 10 sen expectation. Management hinted at the possibility of a final dividend. Assuming a net payout ratio of 40% (close to the larger banks and our 38% assumption for AFG), we estimate a potential final gross DPS of 5.5 sen or full-year net yield of 4.4%.

We make no change to our earnings forecasts and maintain our fair value of RM2.05 (based on the average values derived from target CY12 price-earnings ratio of 6.5 times and target CY12 price-to-book value of 0.5 times) and “underperform” call. We remain concerned about the group’s ability to grow income, given slowing loan growth and NIM pressures. Already, 3QFY11 operating income fell 5% q-o-q. With recoveries unlikely to be sustained, this will put upward pressure on credit cost, further adversely affecting earnings growth ahead, in our view. — RHB Research, Dec 2


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, December 5, 2011.




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Hua Yang to offer more affordable houses

Hua Yang Bhd's biggest lakeside township development in Perak, Bandar Universiti Seri Iskandar, will be offering more affordable houses by building 137 units of the Tropika and Casa Series, which are essentially double-storey terrace houses.

"There will also be the Seri Idaman and Seri Andaman series, priced from RM130,000 with each unit spanning 74.4 sq m.

"Overall, a total of 909 units will be built," said chief executive officer Ho Wen Yan in a statement today.

The company will also launch 123 units of retail shops with a pedestrian mall concept adjacent to the Tesco Superstore in 2012, and will build more commercial shop lots priced from RM450,000.

Spanning over 335.2 ha, the township, the group's biggest township project by area, will contribute about 30 per cent of the entire group's earnings next year and will allow Hua Yang to develop the total area in parcels over the next eight years.

The company today received the arrival of a Tesco Superstore, which is set to boost sales and mark the arrival of other retail vendors.

Strategically located at OneBU@Seri Iskandar, the township's lifestyle and business hub, Tesco's main footage will attract families and individuals to visit the township for groceries, fresh foods and household needs, Ho said.

He said Tesco will cater to the rapidly growing population, which now stands at 10,000. "We have seen brisk sales with our latest phases of the Selinsing and Lily series fully sold out," he said.

Two hundred units of the Bandar Universiti Business Centre (BUBC) series of commercial shop lots have been snapped up by operators leveraging on the growing student population.

The company said to date, it had achieved a good sales take-up rate of 85 per cent. -- Bernama



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DiGi: Take the money and run

DiGi.Com Bhd (Dec 2, RM3.73)
Downgrade to hold at RM3.60 with target price of RM3.46: We are downgrading our call on DiGi.Com Bhd to a “hold” following a very successful “buy” call in October. Since then, the stock has surged by some 16% and outperformed the KLCI by 15%. Given a lack of further catalysts other than the stock split that occurred post-upgrade, and the fact that recent results by all the telcos suggest the Malaysia telco market is in the grind phase as it combats declining voice revenue and slowing data growth, we would prefer to take the money first. Switch to Telekom Malaysia Bhd. Our earned value-based target price of RM3.46 is maintained.

Interest in the stock has been stoked by the group’s capital management plans, while fundamentally the group has continued to display strong defensive qualities. Its 10-for-one share split that took effect on Nov 24, has also attracted much retail interest with the share price reduction from a heady RM30 plus to a more retail palatable RM3 plus. DiGi’s foreign shareholding has moved up since the beginning of the year (11.9% as at end-October against 9% as at end-January).

At the current level, DiGi has the honour of heading up the rich territory in our basket of telcos under coverage. At the current share price, it is trading at 24 times FY12 earnings. Admittedly, earnings are skewed by its policy of accelerating the depreciation of its old 2G network as it swaps out to a new network capable of HSPA+ and LTE. But even if we add back an estimated RM500 million to RM550 million to FY12 earnings, its price-earnings ratio will still be around 20 times.


Following the last round of capital distribution (6.5 sen per share raised from subsidiary Digitel’s share premium account to the listco), there is the possibility of another 8.9 sen per share (RM692 million) in its own share premium account that could be distributed. However, DiGi will need to go through a legal process to get this transferred to distributable reserves before it can pay it out. Management has remained tight-lipped on what it intends to do and when. We fear it may not be so soon after the last round. — Maybank IB Research, Dec 2


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, December 5, 2011.




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Petronas Gas: And Lumut makes four?

Petronas Gas Bhd (Dec 2, RM14)
Maintain buy at RM13.32 with fair value of RM15.52: During the press conference on Petronas Gas Bhd’s (PetGas) 2Q results, its president Datuk Shamsul Azhar Abbas announced that the company plans to build two more liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals in Pengerang and Lahad Datu and is considering a fourth in Lumut. The Pengerang and Lahad Datu terminals are expected to be completed by 2015. There will also be a floating LNG plant in Kanawit, Sarawak, by 2015 and possibly a second floating LNG plant in Sabah by 2016.

While we have often talked about the Pengerang and Sabah LNG terminals, this is the first time we have heard of the Lumut terminal. Given the presence of numerous gas fired power plants (Malakoff’s Segari Energy Ventures and GB3) and the existence of deep draft ports in the area, it would certainly be no surprise if a fourth LNG terminal emerges in Lumut.

While Shamsul had previously said that Pengerang should have a LNG terminal, which we understand will have a rated capacity of 3.8 million tones, similar to Malacca, it was Sabah state officials who talked about having a LNG terminal in Sabah. Now Petronas has officially said that a LNG terminal will be built in Lahad Datu to cater for the new Sabah east coast gas plant and possibly new industries in that area. We understand that this terminal will have a rated capacity of one million tonnes per year but this could go up pending an assessment of demand before construction begins. As for the Sabah and Sarawak floating LNG terminals, we are aware that these have been on the drawing board since 2007 but we believe MISC will want to be the operator of these terminals.

As we mentioned in our previous reports, we believe PetGas, as the operator of the upcoming first LNG terminal in Malacca, will also get to be the owner-operator of the LNG terminals in Pengerang, Lahad Datu and Lumut as well. We had already bumped up our terminal growth rate for PetGas to 3.5% and raised our fair value (FV) to RM15.52 (See our Nov 25 report) to account for potential earnings from Pengerang and Lahad Datu. We will await further details before raising our fair value further. As of now, no contract has been signed by PetGas confirming that the group will indeed own and operate the other LNG import terminals in Malaysia.

PetGas remains our top utility buy and one of our top 10 “buys” for the market overall. The group’s existing business is defensive in nature while the upcoming LNG terminals will enhance its appeal as well as safe growth angle given that the gas shortage in Peninsular Malaysia may become more acute in the coming years. — OSK Research, Dec 2


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, December 5, 2011.



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Axiata’s growing pains

Axiata Group Bhd (Dec 2, RM4.90)
Maintain hold at RM4.83 with revised target price of RM4.80 (from RM5.10): Celcom Axiata Bhd’s migration to an intelligent network (IN) platform from its 15-year-old legacy infrastructure caused new prepaid packages and bundles to be deferred from 3Q11 to 4Q11. As such, we expect minimal declines in voice and SMS revenues this quarter, supported by the sale of these packages as well as continued efforts to resuscitate voice revenues. To date eight million new subscribers have been migrated to the new IN. Celcom also attributed slower wireless broadband growth to the substitution effect as dongle users increasingly go for medium screen tablets and smartphones. But overall, data is still growing at a double digit pace.

Management guided for capital expenditure to range between RM4.1 billion and RM4.4 billion in FY11, driven by XL Axiata Tbk’s accelerated deployment of network coverage infrastructure. XL will take up RM2.3 billion, and Celcom RM950 million. The remaining RM850 million will be split between Dialog, Robi, Hello and others. We understand this trend may extend to 2012, when XL completes its network expansion. Capital management plans are under review, but management is currently sticking to its 30% dividend payout policy.


We trimmed FY11 to FY13F earnings by 3% to 4% after imputing larger depreciation charge for Axiata’s network modernisation and USP and raised capex assumptions to guided numbers. Coupled with rolling over our target valuation base to FY12F, we derived a sum-of-parts fair value of RM4.80. — HwangDBS Vickers Research, Dec 2


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, December 5, 2011.




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RM2b fuel relief boost for TNB

Tenaga Nasional Bhd (Dec 2, RM5.64)
Maintain buy at RM5.68 with revised fair value of RM6.57 (from RM6.40): We reiterate our “buy” call on Tenaga Nasional Bhd (TNB), with a higher discounted cash flow-derived fair value of RM6.57 against RM6.40 previously due to the higher-than-expected fuel sharing relief from the government and Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas).

We maintain our core FY12F earnings of RM2,886 million, but have incorporated an additional RM1 billion in exceptional fuel cost relief from the government and Petronas. The additional FY12F earnings translate into a 17 sen per share increase in TNB’s discounted cash flow to RM6.57 per share.

Recall that our earlier FY12F net profit of RM3,983 million had already assumed a writeback of 50% of the additional fuel cost of RM2.1 billion suffered by TNB in FY11. Our new FY12F net profit of RM4,933 million assumes a writeback of RM2 billion fuel relief.

Our FY12F/FY13F assume normalisation of fuel costs, hence are 8% to 38% above street estimates. We believe these are more reflective of TNB’s earnings as any additional fuel costs next year will likewise be shared with the relevant parties.

TNB has received a letter from the government that provides a fuel cost sharing mechanism to address the current increased cost borne by the group due to the gas shortage. TNB will be liaising soon with the relevant parties to implement this mechanism.


As mentioned in our past reports, TNB is bearing higher operational costs due to running its gas-based power plants on expensive alternate fuels and power imports from Singapore and Thailand.

The letter provides that TNB, Petronas and the government will equally share the differential cost of RM3.1 billion incurred by TNB due to the usage of alternative fuels from Jan 1, 2010 until Oct 31, 2011. Assuming TNB bears only a third of the differential cost, this translates into a one-off RM2 billion relief to the group.

While management does not expect Petronas to fully alleviate the natural gas shortage next year, we expect the supply to be 10% above the 950 mmscfd registered in 2HFY11. Notwithstanding the ongoing gas shortage, the Economic Planning Unit had earlier given assurance that TNB will secure 1,250mmscfd in 2008 to 2011 and 1,350mmscfd next year onward. Hence, we expect Petronas, which will now share a third of the additional fuel cost, to speedily resolve its upstream problems.

The stock currently trades at a price-to-book value of one times, at the lower range of one to 2.6 times over the past five years. Earnings-wise, TNB offers an attractive CY12F price-earnings ratio of eight times compared with the stock’s three-year average band of 11 to 16 times. — AmResearch, Dec 2


This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, December 5, 2011.




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