Monday, 14 November 2011

Kimlun rises on new Iskandar Malaysia contract

KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 14): Kimlun Corporation Bhd shares advanced in early trade on Monday, Nov 14 after it secured a contract worth RM68 million to build a service apartment in Iskandar Malaysia in Johor.

At 9.11am, Kimlun was up three sen to RM1.55 with 3,900 shares traded.

In a filing Friday, Nov 11, Kimlun said its wholly-owned subsidiary Kimlun Sdn Bhd had accepted the letter of award for the contract from Grand Action Sdn Bhd.



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RHB Research: Eversendai substantially insulated from the European debt crisis

KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 14): RHB Research has maintained its Outperform rating and fair value of RM1.95 for Eversendai Corporation Bhd and said the company was substantially insulated from the European debt crisis.

In a note Nov 14, RHB Research said that Eversendai had reiterated that it was on track to meet its IPO net profit forecasts of RM116.7 million and RM130.2 million in FY12/11-12 and FY12/11 new orderbook guidance of RM1.4 billionn.

“It expects "hectic" times ahead in Malaysia underpinned largely by potential jobs from the Manjung and Tanjung Bin power plant extension projects.

“It reiterated that the European debt crisis will not have a significant bearing on its business prospects, given that its main markets are the Middle East, India and Malaysia,” said the research house.



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MIDF Research initiates coverage on AFG with TP of RM3.84

KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 14): MIDF Research has initiated coverage on ALLIANCE FINANCIAL GROUP BHD [] at RM3.40 with a Buy rating and target price (TP) of RM3.84.

In a note Monday, Nov 14, MIDF Research said that having taken into account AFG’s lower loan growth rate (which results in a lower LD ratio compared to peers) and weaker IB business unit, the research said it was expecting ROEs of 12.8% and ROE of 12.0% for FY12 and FY13 respectively.

“Despite the above drawbacks against peers, the stock is attractive with a TP of RM3.84 which is based on PBV ratio of 1.5x to FY13 BVPS. PBV ratio of 1.5x is lower compared to the average for the five banking stocks under our coverage (excluding Public Bank which has always been on the higher PBV ratio than peers) of 1.8x.

“Our TP of RM3.84 equates to PER of 12.4x. As the expected total return of the stock is slightly above 15%, we are assigning a BUY recommendation. Our valuation has taken into account weaker non-interest income for FY13 due to softer capital market and a slower expected economic growth,” it said.



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Tradewinds may further develop Langkawi

Langkawi Tradewinds Corp Bhd (TCB), controlled by businessman Tan Sri Syed Mokhtar Al-Bukhary, is set to bring more developments to Langkawi, with at least two major projects on the cards.

Business Times has learnt that the company may build a new five-star resort and redevelop Telaga Harbour Park at Pantai Kok.

It is not immediately known if TCB will embark on these developments on its own or on a joint-venture basis.

Speculations are also rife that TCB may have recently bought over the three-star Mutiara Bay Beach Resort in Langkawi, which it manages and operates for the Langkawi Development Authority
(Lada).

“The proposed location of the new resort is likely to be sited on land leased out from Lada, somewhere between The Danna Langkawi and Mutiara Burau Bay Beach Resort,” a source said.

The redevelopment of Telaga Harbour, meanwhile,is said to see the construction of residential and commercial units.

TCB currently owns and manages Perdana Quay, a commercial and retail property made up of some 90,000 sq ft of business space.

In addition to Mutiara Burau Bay, TCB also owns luxury boutique hotel The Danna and the five-star Meritus Pelangi Beach Resort and Spa Langkawi.



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Bursa likely to see edgy trading

Should speculation of an early general election continue to be in play, the news could help put some excitement in the market and keep Bursa Malaysia on its toes.

STOCKS on Bursa Malaysia are likely to be treading within a moderate band, but on a mild downward bias this week, pending the emergence of a clearer picture in the global scene.

The market is expected to remain edgy on developments in Europe, especially pertaining to the Italian government's bond auction last Monday.

Volatility had also spiked up recently and the consensus was that global equity markets remain vulnerable to a sharp selloff.

Malaysia's third quarter gross domestic product growth that is slated to be unveiled on Friday is not expected to be a major push factor in the market.

However, despite these news, the local market will remain resilient this week and investors are expected to take advantage of the temporary weakness in the local market to ride out potential year-end rally.

Second liners and penny stocks are expected to remain on the good side for the second consecutive week as blue-chip counters paused for a breather.

Analysts said it was clear that market players have shifted their focus on cheaper stocks.

Should speculation of an early general election continue to be in play, the news could help put some excitement in the market and keep Bursa Malaysia on its toes.

However, investors are advised to trade cautiously, as the pullback in this basket of "high risk" stocks would usually be sharper than expected once the music stops. This is simply because most, but not all, are running on empty, and not forgetting the European debt crisis is still shadowing equities.

Major resistance level is pegged at between 1,500 and 1,530 points, while support level for the local benchmark at 1,460 points.

On a Friday-to-Friday, the benchmark FBM KLCI declined 8.76 points to 1,468.75.

Other news that could be positive for the local market this week is Bank Negara Malaysia's decision to maintain the Overnight Policy Rate unchanged at three per cent amid a moderate global growth momentum.

Among stocks that could be in focus this week include Dijaya Corp Bhd, Kimlun Corp Bhd, KPJ Healthcare Bhd and oil and gas-related counters.

Total volume on Bursa Malaysia increased to 9.203 billion shares valued at RM6.049 billion from 8.15 billion shares valued at RM7.22 billion last week.

Bursa Malaysia's main market turnover rose to 6.784 billion shares worth RM5.72 billion, from 5.76 billion shares worth RM6.91 billion previously.



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KL shares expected to face mild downward pressure

ACE Market and penny stocks are likely to continue attracting strong retail participation,, says a head of research.

Shares on Bursa Malaysia whip-sawed last week due to volatile conditions on global markets on concern that the contagion from the European sovereign debt crisis could spread from Greece to Italy. However, ACE Market and penny stocks enjoyed sharp rallies due to strong retail participation and as market players woke up from their slumber to join the party on the local stock exchange.

For the week, the blue-chip benchmark FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI) eased 8.76 points, or 0.6 per cent, to close at 1,468.75, with most of the losses coming from IOI Corp(-17 sen), CIMB (-14 sen), Genting Bhd (-22 sen) and Tenaga Nasional(-13 sen). Average daily traded volume and value ballooned to 2.3 billion shares and RM1.5 billion respectively, the highest since February this year, compared with the 1.63 billion shares and RM1.43 billion in the previous week, as ACE market and penny stocks continued to attract strong retail participation last week.

Positive vibes seen in the US and European markets last Friday should trickle down to our local market today despite the continued unsettling issues in the eurozone. The fact that the Italian prime minister resigned last Friday to pave way Mario Monti to form a new government that can start working on agreed austerity measures and find ways in reducing its ?1.9 billion debt could help ease the current volatility in financial markets.

This development is important as the Italian 10-year bond yields surged past seven per cent last week, which raised concerns that Italy could be forced to seek a bailout. While intervention from the European Central Bank brought it down to below seven per cent temporarily, a stable government should be able to provide a more coherent and credible economic plan that could pacify investors and stabilise the bond market for now.

However, bear mind that there is no short-term fix for Europe's woes. The bitter pills of austerity measures will have their contractionary impact on gross domestic product and affect the rest of the world. Thus, it is not surprising when Malaysia's central bank maintained its overnight policy rate at three per cent as its last Friday's meeting amid concerns over rising policy uncertainties. It was within market expectations. It may choose to hold rates steady even at the next Monetary policy Committee meeting on January 31 2012 as global adversities could derail the overall growth prospects of the domestic economy, especially in terms of external demand.

While the third quarter GDP figure that will be released on Friday could provide some indication on the economic conditions, it will not be a true reflection of the effectss from current developments in the eurozone where its members are still grappling with debt issues and the agreed austerity measures still at early stage of implementations.

Based on Bank Negara Malaysia's assessment last Friday that the domestic economy had benefited from both international trade and robust domestic demand, the third quarter GDP figure could surprise on the upside against consensus forecast of 4.5 per cent.

On the US front, there are retail sales, housing starts and building permits data this week. Expect no positive surprises amid still weak housing and labour markets.

Technical outlook

In FBM KLCI futures, spot month November traded on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives sank 22.5 points, or 1.5 per cent, last week to 1,457.5, reversing to a wide 11.25-point discount to the cash index, compared to the 2.5-point premium the previous Friday, as investors stayed away from the futures market amid concern external volatility may adversely impact the local stock market.

The FBM KLCI retreated from earlier gains in line with most Asian markets on Tuesday as sentiment turned cautious over the ongoing eurozone financial turmoil, with trading momentum staying robust on lower liners and ACE Market stocks. The FBM KLCI gained 2.95 points to settle at 1,480.46, off an early high of 1,489.91.

Shares on Bursa Malaysia extended gains the next day after data showed China's inflation slowed and Italy's prime minister offered to resign, raising hopes Europe could contain its debt crisis. Active trading continued to focus on ACE Market and penny stocks, while the FBM KLCI climbed 9.18 points to settle at 1,489.64, off a high of 1,490.74, in heavy trade totalling 2.67 billion shares worth RM1.81 billion.

Stocks fell in a correction on Thursday, sparked by heavy losses on overnight US and European markets on concerns over potential spread of the eurozone debt contagion to Italy, and weaker-than-expected regional economic data. The FBM KLCI slumped 16.99 points or 1.14 per cent to 1,472.65, off an early low of 1,466.25, as losers swarmed gainers 568 to 227 on high turnover of 2.64 billion shares worth RM1.46 billion, mostly from ACE Market and penny stocks.

The local stock market recovered ahead of the weekend following the overnight rebound on Wall Street on lower jobless claims and lessening eurozone worries as Greece selected a new premier, with trading momentum still focused on penny stocks. Nonetheless, late profit-taking in blue chips caused the index to close down 3.9 points at the day's low of 1,468.75 on Friday, off an early high of 1,478.33.

The trading range for the FBM KLCI shrank to 24.49 points last week, compared to the 40.64-point range the previous week, as blue chips stayed within narrow trading ranges.

Among other indices, the FBM-EMAS Index lost 32.82 points, or 0.33 per cent to 10,039.33, but the FBM-Small Cap Index rebounded by 101.47 points, or 0.9 per cent, to 11,562.40.

On the technical momentum indicators, the daily slow stochastics for the FBM KLCI flashed another fresh sell signal and dropped below the overbought region, but the weekly indicator stayed bullish after triggering a buy last week. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator levelled off with a reading of 54.58, while the 14-week RSI deteriorated marginally to read 48.05.

On trend indicators, the daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) signal line has dipped and is poised to trigger a sell on further weakness, but the weekly MACD flashed a buy signal last week. The 14-day Directional Movement Index (DMI) trend indicator remained bearish, but the declining ADX line suggested a near-term market consolidation.

Conclusion

While the daily slow stochastics and MACD indicators on the FBM KLCI are bearish following last week's consolidation, bullish readings on the weekly slow stochastics and MACD support further upside in the medium term. Thus, any downside pressure this week should be mild, especially with the strong rise of in the US and European stock markets last Friday likely to draw more investors into equities as risk aversion dwindles.

Chart-wise, prefer blue chips such as AMMB and Maybank, while lower liners like Supermax, MRCB, DRB-Hicom, Kencana and SapuraCrest Petroleum are attractive to accumulate for longer-term upside.

Meantime, ACE Market and penny stocks are likely to continue attracting strong retail participation, with strong expectation of a general election in the first quarter of next year than in the immediate term after the prime minister's statement last week that it will not be held this year potentially easing concerns about market uncertainty in the immediate term.

As for the benchmark index, a decisive breakout above 1,488, the 61.8 per cent Fibonacci Retracement (FR) of the sell-off from the 1,597 record high of July 11 to the recent pivot low of 1,310 on September 26 which matches the 100-day moving average, would move it higher to challenge the more formidable 200-day moving average resistance at 1,508.

A breakout would see the 76.4 per cent FR at 1,529 as the next upside barrier. Immediate support during any profit-taking dips stays at 1,454, the 50 per cent FR, with better retracement support at 1,420, the 38.2 per cent FR, followed by 1,400 and then 1,378, the 23.6 per cent FR.

The subject expressed above is based purely on technical analysis and opinions of the writer. It is not a solicitation to buy or sell.





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HwangDBS Vickers: KLCI to challenge resistance line of 1,475

KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 14): Major U.S. equity indices jumped between 1.9% and 2.2% on Friday, lifted by better U.S. economic data and hopes that there would be stronger political will to resolve the European sovereign debt crisis following the leadership changes in Greece and Italy, according to HwangDBS Vickers Research.

Wall Street’s strength will likely provide a boost to sentiment across Asia today, the research house said in a note Monday, Nov 14.

“Back home, we reckon the benchmark FBM KLCI will probably rise and challenge the immediate resistance line of 1,475 ahead.

“In terms of corporate developments, investors may focus on: (a) Dijaya Corporation and Ivory PROPERTIES [] after both companies have entered into a joint venture to develop 103 acres of land with a GDV of RM10 billion in Penang; (b) Kimlun Corporation, which has secured a contract valued at RM68 million to construct service apartments in Johor; and (c) Maybank, as the banking group is scheduled to release its Jul – Sep quarterly results around noon time,” it said.



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Stocks to watch: Dijaya, Ivory, Kimlun, KPJ, oil and gas-related counters

KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 12): The FBM KLCI is expected to trend moderately higher on Monday, Nov 14 in line with the positive close at Wall Street last Friday.

Also, the statement by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak on Nov 11 that the general election would not be held this year put an end to weeks of speculation, and created what some analysts have described as offering some clarity to a nervy local market.

US stocks rose on Friday, ending higher for the week after the Italian Senate's approval of economic reforms gave investors some relief from worries about the euro zone's debt crisis.

The Dow Jones industrial average was up 2.19% to 12,153.68; the Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 1.95% to 1,263.85, while the Nasdaq Composite Index added 2.04% to 2,678.75.

Affin Investment Bank Bhd head of retail research Dr Mohd Nazri Khan said Najib’s statement was to be taken as positive for the market, as it provides for more clarity and less volatility.

“Sometimes election can heighten market fluctuation as was seen in the run-up to the Sarawak state election in April this year,” he said.

Meanwhile, MIDF Research head Zulkifli Hamzah said the market was expected to remain edgy next week, on developments in Europe, especially pertaining to the Italian government’s bond auction on Monday.

Volatility had spiked up recently and the consensus was that global equity markets remain vulnerable to sharp selloff, he said.

He said Malaysia’s 3Q11 GDP growth, which was slated to be unveiled on Nov 18 was not expected to be a game-changing announcement.

“Our house view is that growth may hit 5% year-on-year, which would be keeping pace with regional economies,” he said.

Zulkifli said the local equity market was currently in a period of uneasy equilibrium, but added that foreign investors appear to be keeping faith in the Malaysian market and had been gradually accumulating since early October.

“There were net buyers again this week. Yet, local investors are circumspect of the fact that remains a large overhang of foreign liquidity in the system that can decide to eject overnight,” he said.

Among the stocks that could be in focus on Monday are DIJAYA CORPORATION BHD [], Ivory PROPERTIES [] Group Bhd, Kimlun Corporation Bhd, KPJ HEALTHCARE BHD [] and oil and gas-related counters.

Dijaya and Ivory inked a joint venture agreement to develop mixed residential and commercial properties in Penang with a gross development value of RM10 billion.

The two companies said the development will be completed over the next eight years and would comprise of residential, shopping mall, hotel, office suites, office towers, retail spaces and an open mall with a boulevard.

CONSTRUCTION [] of the first phase is scheduled to begin next year, they said last Friday.

Kimlun secured a contract worth RM68 million to build a service apartment in Iskandar Malaysia in Johor.

It said last week that its wholly-owned subsidiary Kimlun Sdn Bhd had accepted the letter of award for the contract from Grand Action Sdn Bhd.

KPJ is buying four plots of land in the district of Klang, Selangor for RM23.76 million cash as part of its plans to build a specialist hospital.

KPJ on Friday said the four plots of land were situated within a mixed development undertaken by Sazean known as “Sazean Business Park”, and that Sazean would make an application to convert the category of the lands it was buying from agricultural to building/commercial.

Meanwhile, Petroliam Nasional Bhd and Shell Malaysia last week inked heads of agreement (HOA) for new enhanced oil recovery projects offshore Sabah and Sarawak, a development which may boost the oil and gas support services-related counters.



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